Financial Management

There the second quarter, which began limited reinforcement JCI could make a trend inversely dollars from the previous period. Why so? There are several reasons that can be considered regarding this possibility.

The first factor is the trend of the U.S. equity markets that began boost goes up to the level of stock index reached before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. If this trend continues, then the appeal of assets look more attractive countries for investors.

Indeed the U.S. stock charts are very dependent on trends in the labor sector. The unemployment rate is increasingly eroded a sign that this trend will not show the changes.

The situation looks different in the euro area financial sector. Psychological pressure from the Greek crisis still haunt the stock markets of Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain. The majority of investors still seemed worried about the systemic effects of Greece’s debt problems. But these fears can be mitigated by reduced market anxiety over Europe’s sovereign risk. So hot money could be rolled back to the advanced state assets in the next three months.

The second factor that could end the rupiah rally is the expectation of the interest rate differential (the difference between interest margin). If market participants began to expect the rise in U.S. interest rates, the difference is the difference in interest rates will hit Indonesia emerging market assets, primarily equity and bond markets. Expectations of market participants to the cycle of U.S. interest rate rise in the second quarter are expected to rise, referring to the U.S. economic data is improving. The accumulation of potentially positive reports raised confidence of foreign investors on the performance of the dollar compared to other currencies.

Referring to the technical analysis GBP / USD at the Daily and Weekly charts, can be seen that the RSI and Stochastic are in oversold area. At the same time, in the graph Daily MACD bullish divergence in formation. This fact should change the bias correction bullish U.S. dollar against the rupiah, at least capable of targeting an area 9200 in the near future. With notes, required penetration is consistently above the area 9090-9110 for the momentum correction trigger further weakening rupiah.

In this phase, a key support level of 9000 to withhold any further appreciation of the rupiah. When the rupiah through the area below 9,000, will lead to strengthening of the rupiah to the Fibonacci target of 79 percent in the 8980 area.

Based on technical and fundamental analysis, should be the main trend of rupiah is still on track for long-term appreciation. Short-term projections indicate that the Euro is still likely to weaken corrected before continuing reinforcement.